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Why does it say “Not tonight” when the forecast elsewhere looks good?

Almost always because of cloud, or because it is not dark enough where you are. Most aurora apps report geomagnetic activity and stop there — a real number, but the answer to a different question. A 90% probability under thick overcast is a wasted drive at two in the morning.

Blika names the binding factor for exactly this reason. If it says “Overcast”, the aurora may well be blazing above the cloud deck; you still will not see it.

What do the three verdicts mean?

• Go now — all three factors are favourable. This is the one that should get you off the sofa.
• Keep an eye out — one factor is marginal. Broken cloud with gaps, or activity that has not quite arrived. Worth another look in an hour.
• Not tonight — one factor is decisively against it, and Blika says which.

There is deliberately no score out of 100. A number invites you to argue with it; a verdict tells you which thing is in the way, which is the part that actually changes your evening.

Why does it say “Go now” and then warn me about the moon?

Because the moon is a modifier, never a blocker. Bright moonlight washes out a faint display but will not stop a strong one, so it is never allowed to overturn a verdict — it is shown as a fourth reason under the three that decided it.

In practice: go, but do not expect to photograph a faint arc.

What is Kp, and why is it not the verdict?

Kp is the planetary K index: a single global figure, published in three-hour blocks, measuring geomagnetic disturbance across the whole Earth. It is genuinely useful, and it is the number every aurora forum quotes.

It is not an answer to “should I go outside”, because it says nothing about whether there is cloud over your head, whether the sun has set, or whether the aurora oval has actually reached your latitude. Blika shows Kp on a card of its own as context, and uses NOAA's OVATION probability at your own grid square for the verdict.

Why is there no aurora forecast for next weekend?

Because nobody has one. Aurora depends on the solar wind arriving at Earth, and the useful warning is roughly the 30–60 minutes it takes that wind to travel from the DSCOVR satellite at L1 to the atmosphere. Anything presented as an aurora forecast a week out is a probability derived from the solar rotation, not a prediction of your Saturday night.

Blika's three-night outlook covers cloud and darkness — the two factors that genuinely are forecast that far ahead — and says so on the card. Which is still useful: it tells you which of the next three nights is worth being ready for.

I declined the location prompt. Is the app broken?

No — declining is supported. Blika will show “Location off” and point you at Settings. It cannot work out a verdict without knowing where you are, so it waits rather than guessing.

To change your mind: Settings → Privacy & Security → Location Services → Blika, and choose “While Using the App”. Or find Blika directly at the bottom of the main Settings list.

How precise does my location have to be?

Not very. Blika asks iOS for kilometre accuracy, which is the coarsest setting that still identifies the right patch of sky — the aurora grid is 1° square, which is roughly 110 km across.

What leaves your phone, and who receives it, is set out in full on the privacy page.

What does the purchase unlock?

The dashboard: all eight cards, chosen and ordered by you; solar wind and Bz from DSCOVR; tonight's window; and the three-night outlook.

The verdict and its reasons stay free forever, with no account and no ads. It is one payment, once, and there is nothing to cancel.

How do I restore my purchase on a new phone?

Open the unlock screen and tap Restore. As long as you are signed in with the same Apple Account that bought it, it comes straight back — there is no account with us to log into, and nothing to recover on our side. If it does not, check the Apple Account in Settings first, then write to us.

It says it cannot give a verdict. What happened?

One of the three load-bearing feeds did not answer — usually NOAA or the cloud forecast, and usually briefly. Blika will not assemble a verdict out of two factors and a guess, so it tells you it has nothing rather than showing you a confident answer resting on a number it does not have.

Pull to refresh in a few minutes. If it persists for hours, NOAA is likely having an outage, and there is nothing either of us can do but wait.

Can I get an alert when it turns to “Go now”?

Not yet — it is the next thing being built, and it is taking a while on purpose. An alert that fires because a number crossed a threshold on the other side of the planet trains you to ignore alerts, which is worse than having none.

How do I delete my data?

Delete the app. That is the whole procedure, because everything Blika stores is on the device. There is no account, no server, and nothing of yours held anywhere else.